Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
