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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has threatened to send armed forces to the urban center.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has pitted two distinctly opposing Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. On the establishment side is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the backing of wealthy contributors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid accusations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a platform that has appealed to voters' frustration at economic disparity, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of considered, uninspiring resistance – a strategy that has angered grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their choice than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on targeting Mamdani personally. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on Fox Business for an discussion with a rightwing host, where the candidate claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Campaign Dynamics

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to the Republican in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other influential figures have pressured Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Political Histories

As far as the his team, and his wealthy backers, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the state legislature in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after footage surfaced appearing to show him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate recalled how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd